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The U.S. 10-year Treasury inched up on Tuesday as investors monitored fresh economic data after the Federal Reserve boosted already-high expectations for imminent interest rate cuts.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury climbed less than one basis point to 3.829%, while the yield on the 2-year Treasury was roughly 4 basis points lower at 3.899%.
Yields and prices move in opposite directions. One basis point equals 0.01%.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday said “the time has come for policy to adjust,” bolstering expectations for a rate cut at the central bank’s next meeting. Powell declined to provide exact indications on the timing or extent of the cut, however.
“The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook and the balance of risks,” Powell said in his keynote address at the Fed’s annual retreat in Jackson Hole.
Market participants are firmly pricing in a rate cut at the Fed’s Sept. 18 meeting. Traders are currently pricing in a roughly 66% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut next month, with 34% pricing in a 50-basis-point rate cut, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
On Tuesday morning, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national home price index showed that prices in the largest U.S. cities increased more than expected in June. The index rose 0.4% on a monthly basis but also showed a 6.5% annual gain, which exceeded the Dow Jones estimate of 6.3%.
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