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The start of the 2024 NFL season is almost here!
As the season inches closer, “Bear Bets” continues to preview the upcoming year from a betting perspective.
Last week, the crew shared its favorite award wagers for the 2024 season. This week, Chris “The Bear” Fallica and Geoff Schwartz were rejoined by Sam Panayotovich and Will Hill to discuss how to bet on the AFC.
They all shared their favorite bets, including some long shots, so let’s get to their wagers!
What are your favorite wagers within the AFC East?
Schwartz: Patriots Under 4.5 wins, Under 337.5 total points, possibly play worst record in NFL (+320)
“They can’t play their quarterback that they would like to play because their offensive line can’t block long enough. … Jacoby Brissett is good enough to win them games if they play Drake Maye more than Brissett, I feel much better about any of these wagers, but I don’t think New England, offensively, is anywhere close to being good enough.”
Hill: Patriots Under 4.5 wins, possibly play last winless team
“Tell me where their first win comes from? They play at Bengals, home for Seahawks, at Jets, at 49ers, vs. Dolphins, vs. Texans, vs. Jaguars, vs. Jets, at Titans, at Bears, vs. Rams, at Dolphins, vs. Colts. I don’t see five wins.”
The Bear: Dolphins Under 9.5 wins, miss the playoffs and all Tua Tagovailoa Unders
“This is a team that’s got a lot of turnover on the roster, a new defensive coordinator. Remember, last year they went 1-6 against playoff teams. Tua had a great year and stayed healthy. Can he stay healthy again? Murphy’s Law says something will happen this year, and he won’t be able to stay healthy again.”
Hill: Bet Dolphins to miss the playoffs, but wait until the middle of the season
“The first half of their schedule is much easier than the second half, and they’re a team that plays well in warm weather. They play well when everything’s going good. But look at the second half of their schedule. This is a team that doesn’t play well in cold weather.”
Schwartz: Aaron Rodgers to win Comeback Player of the Year
“I think Rogers is going to win Comeback Player of the Year because of the storyline, and he’s not gonna get hurt two years in a row.”
Hill: Jets to win the AFC
“Once Rodgers gets on the field, he’s tremendous. He’s got a great team around him. He’s got a defense. I think the sky’s the limit.”
Sammy P: Jets over Eagles and Eagles over Jets wagers in Super Bowl (+12500 average value)
“I think that’s a decent play given the value.”
Who will win the AFC East: Buffalo Bills or New York Jets?
Sammy P: Keon Coleman to win Offensive Rookie of the Year
“I think he’s going to be the No. 1 guy there in Buffalo. Obviously, Stefon Diggs is gone. Gabe Davis is gone. He is a monster. If he catches 80 balls and has 12 touchdowns, he’s going to be the Rookie of the Year.”
What wagers do you like among the AFC North teams?
The Bear: Ravens Under 11.5 wins, miss the playoffs
“Losing the guys that they did on the offensive line, and just like we talked about with Tua, Lamar Jackson in the past has been kind of an injury-prone player because he’s such a freak athlete.”
Hill: Bet Bengals to win division over Ravens
“I generally don’t like to fade good coach, good quarterback combos. That’s usually not a good way to make money. But they lost a bunch on the offensive line. They don’t have the safety blanket at backup quarterback. They lost Mike Macdonald who’s a very highly regarded defense coordinator.
“You combine that with Cincy, who’s got the talent, and you give them a schedule where they [play last-place teams], Joe Burrow’s healthy and you figure the defense will play better. I think Cincy is the better bet to win the division.”
Who will win the AFC North: Cleveland Browns, Ravens or Bengals?
Sammy P: Ravens to miss the playoffs (+240)
“Fourth-toughest schedule this year for the Ravens. They start [with a tough schedule].”
Schwartz: Browns to win the division (+600) and make the playoffs (+145)
“They’re really good, their roster is legitimately the best in the NFL. The question is whether Deshaun Watson can just be average. If he’s just average … they’ll be a very good football team.”
Schwartz: Myles Garrett Over 13.75 sacks, TJ Watt Over 13.75 sacks
“The one market that I like in futures every year is sack totals. I feel like they still sell these guys short every year. Those numbers are well over what those guys have been at for most of their careers.”
What wagers do you like in the AFC South?
The Bear: Trevor Lawrence to lead the league in passing (+2500)
“I know the jury’s out on whether Lawrence is going to be this generational type quarterback, but last year he missed a game and played hurt in a couple of others and threw for over 4,000 yards. Wide receivers didn’t help him out a lot. He’s got Christian Kirk, Gabe Davis and I love the pick of Brian Thomas Jr.”
Sammy P: Possibly play Over on Will Levis totals and to lead the league in passing (+4000)
“They’re going to throw the ball a lot. They’re going to be down a lot. And he’s got DeAndre Hopkins, Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd. A lot of things have to go right, but in terms of game script, Levis [has things going his way].”
The Bear: Possibly player Titans Over 6.5 wins
“That division is not great, and maybe the Texans are a little overrated. I think the Colts are maybe a little overrated. They’re going to be one of those teams I think that people are going to be looking to pick against, but they’re going to derail a lot of people’s survivor pools.”
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