Russian President Vladimir Putin will be on a two-day visit to India starting Thursday, lobbying for more sales of Russian oil, missile systems and fighter planes in a drive to rebuild energy and defence ties weakened by US pressure on the South Asian nation.
Russia has supplied weapons to India for decades, with New Delhi emerging as its main consumer of seaborne oil despite Western sanctions after Moscow launched its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
But India’s crude imports are projected to hit a three-year low this month, after the tightening of sanctions on Russia that coincide with its increased purchases of U.S. oil and gas.
On his first visit in four years to New Delhi for a meeting with the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Putin will be accompanied by his defence minister, Andrei Belousov, and a huge delegation from business and industry.
Putin last visited India in 2021. Modi was in Moscow last year, and the two leaders briefly met in September in China for a Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit.
The India-Russia summit comes as the US renews its push for a Ukraine peace plan and seeks broader collaboration from key countries.
“I and Prime Minister Modi will discuss Indian imports during the upcoming visit,” Putin said in the VTB Investment Forum, pointing out that bilateral trade with China and India have increased significantly over the previous three years.
Michael Kugelman of the Atlantic Council think tank in Washington said, “Putin’s visit offers an opportunity for Delhi to reassert the strength of its special relationship with Moscow, despite recent developments, and make headway in new arms deals.”
He said that new initiatives were probably going to be unveiled, even if they largely dealt with low-hanging fruit in ties.
Indian officials, however, are concerned that any new energy and defense agreements with Russia would provoke a response from US President Donald Trump, who in August increased tariffs on Indian imports to 50 percent as retaliation for New Delhi’s purchases of Russian crude.
Ahead of Putin’s visit, representatives of both sides had talks ranging from defence to shipping and agriculture. They decided to start negotiations for a free trade agreement between India and the Eurasian Economic Union, which is led by Russia, in August.
According to Indian analysts, they are also in discussions to broaden their collaboration in civilian nuclear energy.
Putin’s delegation includes the senior executives of big Russian lender Sberbank and state arms exporter Rosoboronexport, as well as the CEOs of sanctioned oil firms Rosneft and GazpromNeft, an industry source with direct knowledge of the subject said.
Ahead of the visit, Sberbank said it was interested in investing in Indian infrastructure projects making use of rupees, in which a major chunk of two-way trade is paid.
India CEO Ivan Nosov said Sberbank was also giving rupee loans to Russian exporters and local entities to enhance Indian sales of Russian items.
In a later statement the bank claimed it launched a rupee-denominated letter of credit with deferred payment for purchases in India, which will assist Russian enterprises to grow imports from the South Asian country.
Anatoly Popov, deputy chairman of Sberbank’s executive board said, “The bank can finance up to 100% of the cost of a shipment from India, with the interest rate for using the deferred payment being several points lower than the rate for a ruble loan.”
Moscow may seek India’s support to secure technical equipment for its oil assets, as sanctions have limited access to major suppliers, said the industry source and a separate Indian government source.
Because of the sensitivity of the matter, the sources spoke under the condition of anonymity.
India is set to advocate for the return of a stake of 20 percent for state gas exploration ONGC Videsh Ltd in the Sakhalin-1 project in Russia’s far east, the official source noted.
Widening discounts are already attracting some state refiners, but the majority of India’s refiners have ceased purchasing Russian oil, so the country wants to establish a trade agreement with the US by end of this year.
Defense Secretary Rajesh Kumar Singh stated last week that, in contrast to crude, India does not intend to halt defense relations with Moscow anytime soon because it needs support for the several Russian systems it uses.
Russian Sukhoi-30 jets make up most of India’s 29 fighter squadrons and Moscow has also offered its most sophisticated fighter, the Su-57, which is likely to figure in this week’s talks, said two Indian officials familiar with the subject.
The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said that India had not yet decided whether to purchase the aircraft.
However, Singh said last week that India is probably going to talk about purchasing additional S-400 air defense units.
Recent US-Russia talks to resolve Ukraine war could help make it easier for Indian authorities to interact with Moscow, though ties seem strained, said Harsh Pant, head of foreign policy studies at India’s Observer Research Foundation think tank.
“A large part of the trading relationship was based on energy, which is now losing traction under the threat of sanctions from the United States.
“And at the end of the day, only defence remains, which continues to bind the two together,” he added.