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It has been a rough summer for investors, with markets pushing losses for the last few months. It’s not all doom and gloom, with markets more range-bound than permanently damaged.
The () got the pillorying yesterday as it undercut its 200-day MA on distribution volume. Technicals are net bearish with momentum oversold, but there is another nearby price support level around $178 to lean on.
While yesterday’s action sits firmly in the bearish camp, it will take a lot more selling to reverse the June ‘Golden Cross’ between the 50-day and 200-day MAs, and in its current oversold state, there is a good chance for a bounce of merit.
The is still feeling the hangover from Friday’s selling as it struggles to deal with the loss of its 50-day MA. Aside from On-Balance-Volume, technicals are bearish, and the index is underperforming relative to the .
Volume remains light. Monday and yesterday’s candlestick did feel like some attempt to rectify these losses, but this trading action lacked conviction.
The performed a little better with a ‘dragonfly’ doji, this candlestick is traditionally seen as a strong reversal candidate, but momentum isn’t oversold. Reversal candlesticks perform best when they occur at an oversold state.
One index that is an interesting juncture is the . It, too, finished with a bullish doji, but a doji bang on key price support. Volume did rise to mark distribution, but by holding support, such volume is better seen as buying.
An aggressive trader could be a buyer here, although it would be bucking the technical picture.
For the coming week, bulls, we want to see the ‘dragonfly’ doji for large-cap indexes hold, building out to a return above the 50-day MA for the Russell 2000 ($IWM).
The other chart I’m watching is the Russell 2000 ($IWM) weekly chart. It’s marking a key test of the 200-week MA; a loss of this moving average in this time frame would be far more serious, but we need to wait until next week to find out.
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