Trump budget would spike deficits by nearly 5 times Harris proposal, says Penn Wharton

Former President Donald Trump’s economic proposals would increase federal deficits by $5.8 trillion over the next decade, almost five times more than those of Vice President Kamala Harris, which would add $1.2 trillion, according to a new pair of studies from the nonpartisan Penn Wharton Budget Model.

The Trump report found that his plan to permanently extend the 2017 tax cuts would add more than $4 trillion to deficits over the next 10 years. His proposal to eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits comes with a $1.2 trillion price tag, while his pledge to further reduce corporate taxes would add nearly $6 billion.

The Harris analysis showed that her plan to expand the child tax credit, the earned income tax credit and other tax credits would raise deficits by $2.1 trillion in the coming 10 years. And her proposal to create a $25,000 subsidy for all qualifying first-time homebuyers would add $140 billion over a decade.

But the Harris report found that raising the corporate tax rate to 28% from its current level of 21%, as the vice president has floated, could partially offset the costs of her spending by $1.1 trillion.

Along with corporate tax hikes, Harris has said she supports the $5 trillion worth of revenue raisers contained in President Joe Biden’s budget proposal for the 2025 fiscal year.

The lion’s share of Harris’ revenue streams come with a major asterisk, however: they require congressional approval.

By contrast, Trump has suggested paying for his agenda with 10% tariffs on all imports and 60% tariffs on Chinese imports, neither of which would need to be passed by Congress in order to be implemented. Trump claims these trade policies would generate enough long-term domestic growth to outweigh the short-term costs of his economic platform.

But Moody’s Chief Economist Mark Zandi estimated to NBC News that Trump’s tariffs would likely generate $2.5 trillion in revenue. And more broadly, economists warn that such a hard-line tariff policy would likely reignite inflation, just as the rate of consumer price increases has begun to cool.

The Trump and Harris campaigns are racing to paint the other side as an economic danger, each trying to win over voters who are fatigued by the high cost of living.

“Donald Trump’s Project 2025 economic agenda is an inflation and deficit bomb that makes the middle class pay more and the rich pay less,” Harris campaign spokesperson James Singer said in a statement to CNBC.

Trump campaign spokesperson Karoline Leavitt defended the Republican presidential nominee in a statement to CNBC, “President Trump is a businessman who built the greatest economy in American history, and certainly doesn’t need economics lessons from the radical San Francisco liberal pushing Communist price controls.”

Just over a month since Biden dropped out of the race, the Harris campaign has been working at warp speed to roll out its economic agenda.

That pressure is heightened because the economy has been a consistent vulnerability for the Democratic campaign this election cycle given voters’ rosy nostalgia for the pre-pandemic economy under the Trump administration.

— NBC News’ Sahil Kapur contributed to this report.