With the second half of the MLB season set to resume Friday, 22 of 30 teams are within six games of a playoff berth. But if recent history is any indication, most other teams do not have a realistic path to playing in the Fall Classic.
A closer look at the numbers suggests the list of true contenders is minimal, while one team in particular is most likely to win the World Series.
Based on trends in the Wild Card Era (1995-present), there are a series of random but notable figures from the first half of the 2024 season that point to a specific club hoisting the trophy this October. So, who is it? The exercise below will whittle down the playing field from 30 to 1.
Note: When examining data from the WC Era, we did not include the shortened 2020 season that spanned roughly 60 games and did not feature an All-Star break.
1. 27 of the past 28 World Series champions (and 55 of the 56 participants) have been at least .500 at the All-Star break
Of the 30 major-league teams, 12 of them are currently under .500.
The lone team to win the World Series (or even appear in it) despite being under .500 at the break was the 2021 Braves. This means an early goodbye to the defending champion Rangers, who sit four games under .500. At 49-48, the runner-up Diamondbacks are still alive.
OUT: Giants, Reds, Cubs, Rangers, Tigers, Blue Jays, Nationals, Angels, A’s, Rockies, Marlins, White Sox — 18 teams remain
2. 23 of 28 champions (and 45 of 56 participants) have been .500 or better at home
Another self-explainable one here. Good teams protect their home field. Obviously, there are exceptions, like last year’s Rangers, who went on to destroy everyone on the road, but there is a reason teams want home-field advantage and why home teams have won over 54% of playoff games since 1995. Moreover, teams that open the World Series at home have won 20 of the past 28 titles.
OUT: Cardinals, Red Sox, Rays, Padres, Diamondbacks, Mets, Pirates — 11 teams remain
3. 22 of 28 (and 44 of 56 participants) have averaged at least 4.7 runs per game
Pitching wins in October is a common line tossed around, but having a good offense sure doesn’t hurt! Dating back to 1995, 22 World Series winners have been averaging 4.7 runs or more per game at the break. Taking it a step further though, 16 of the 22 champions have averaged over five runs per game. For every 2012 and 2014 Giants victory (the only teams to win the title averaging less than four runs per game at the break since 1995), there are loads of elite offenses to overpower opposing pitchers in key spots.
OUT: Braves, Royals — 9 teams remain
4. 24 of 28 champions (and 48 of 56 participants) have had a strikeout/walk ratio under 2.5
We are starting to get into the weeds here, but teams that work the count provide a nice cushion for teams. On nights when opposing pitchers are inducing soft contact, a club can still stress a defense by not striking out and drawing walks. Plus, there is no way teams can make errors if the ball isn’t put into play, right?
Since 1995, there have been only two teams to finish in the top five in strikeouts in the league offensively and still gone on to play in the World Series: the 2013 Red Sox and the 2004 Red Sox.
OUT: Orioles, Mariners, Twins, Astros — 5 teams remain
5. 20 of 28 (and 40 of 56 participants) have had an opponent OPS in the top 10
OK, so five teams remain (Brewers, Dodgers, Guardians, Yankees and Phillies. They, along with the Orioles, are widely regarded as the six best in baseball in the first half. And while offense is obviously necessary, pitching has proven to be more reliable variable in winning. Consider: Just one of the past eight World Series winners have been ranked outside the top 10 in opponent OPS at the All-Star break (2021 Braves). Moreover, 14 of the previous 20 champions have been in the top 5.
OUT: Guardians, Brewers — 3 teams remain
6. 21 of 28 champions (and 42 of 56 participants) have had a HR/9 rate in the top half of the majors
One of the most important aspects of any good team is keeping the ball in the park. Three out of every four WS winners since 1995 have been in the top half of the league. Dig deeper and 15 of the 28 champions have had a homer per nine rate below one at the break. Making the other team work for the run makes it infinitely harder to score runs and limits quick (and big) comebacks.
OUT: Yankees, Dodgers
Last team standing: Philadelphia Phillies
There is a lot of baseball left to play, but the Phillies prevent home runs, limit strikeouts and draw walks, while also winning at home with a stellar offense. There is a reason this team has the best record in baseball and has been at the top of the MLB standings for almost the whole year, including a historic opening 50 games when their 36 wins was the most of any club in more than two decades.
Philadelphia has proven over the past two years that it’s built for October. Its performance thus far in the regular season indicates that that elusive World Series title could be coming.
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